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:: 11.24.2004 ::
A few more election tidbits
CNN changed it's exit poll results for Ohio in a suspicious way just after midnight on 11/3.
At 12:21am, with 1,963 respondents, CNN showed Kerry ahead of Bush: 51/49 among men, 53/47 among women. A decent lead, though not a huge one. Then, at 1:41am, with 2,020 respondents (that's just under 60 more people polled than they had reported over an hour before), the results changed drastically; Bush now led Kerry, 52/47 among men, 50/50 among women. You can see a screen capture of the changes on Democratic Underground. Other posters to this page noted that MSNBC did the same thing, and another noted at 2am that they had done the same thing with Florida's exit polls.
Found on Daily KOS (which has more relevant statistical tidbits if yer interested) while searching for an answer to Zak's question from that post on 11/10. Still looking for the answer...
More on the exit poll discrepancies, state-by-state: New Hampshire, which has electronic voting but provides verified receipts, exit polling is within 0.1 percent of the actual vote. Kerry led by 3 percent in exit polling, and 2.9 percent in the actual vote.
Maine, the final state for which analysis of exit polling was conducted before the AP “resampled” their data, was in the Kerry column by 7.5 percent; the end result put Kerry up 8 percent, a variance of 0.5 percent. Maine has no electronic voting.
In Florida, Bush led exit polling by CNN of more than three million voters by just 5355 votes. Yet he led by 326,000 in the end result. This morning, CNN changed their exit polling to favor Bush, saying that had overweighted African American voters [Note: resampling in this way cannot account for the huge swing in male/female ratios you can see above - Deb].
In Wisconsin, where exit polls put Kerry up seven percent, Bush has a lead of one percent, an unexplained difference of eight percent.
In New Mexico, Kerry led Bush by 3.8 percent, yet Bush leads Kerry by 3 percent in actual reported voting.
In Minnesota, where a new law sharply restricts reporters’ access to polls, Kerry led 9.6 percent in exit polling. Actual voting counts found that Bush trailed by 5 percent, with a 5 percent discrepancy favoring Bush.
Ohio, which does have paper trail capability but does not mandate receipts, had exits showed Kerry and Bush in a dead heat; in the near-final results, Bush led by three percent.
Exit polls put Kerry up by 8 percent in Michigan; actual results show Bush trailing by just 3 percent.
Nevada, which also has electronic voting — though should have mandated paper trails, had a variance of 4.2 percent. Kerry led the exit polls by 1.2 percent, while Bush led reported votes by 3 percent. Quote found on AlterNet.
:: Deb 4:38 PM :: permalink ::
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